National testing is becoming increasingly important across Europe as a means of measuring and monitoring the quality of education. The introduction and use of national testing has increased significantly since the 1990s (Eurydice, 2009). In Lithuania centralised assessments started 22 years ago. 12th grade Matura examinations were run for the first time in 1999, while centralized assessments of 10th grade students were launched in 2000. Matura examinations of Lithuanian language and literature were compulsory for all school leavers. In 2011 the 10th grade Lithuanian language and literature assessment was made compulsory as well. Eventually national assessments were introduced for the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th grades. National Examination Centre publishes statistical reports on assessments of 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th grades (NEC, 2018), 10th grade (NEC, 2012) and Matura examinations (NEC, 2020). However, annual statistical reviews do not provide relevant data about the dynamics of student achievement over time and the interrelation between several forms of assessment. For that reason, it is necessary to conduct a longitudinal analysis and comparison of several forms of assessment. The aim of our research was to examine whether the assessment results could be valid indicators of progress of student achievement. Therefore, we initiated a study to determine to what extent the results of Matura examinations and 10th grade national assessment examination of Lithuanian language and literature correlate and to identify the predictive value of both examinations.

In the study we used individual level data for the entire Lithuanian secondary school student population, who have taken Matura examinations for the 2014-2018 period. We examined the results of Matura examinations of Lithuanian language and literature and compared them with the results of 10th grade national assessment examinations. We made the analysis of the achievement dynamics over time at the student level. For this, as a first step, we merged the databases of 10th grade test and Matura examinations. Eventually, for each student we obtained two measurements of achievement in time – 10th and 12th grade.

Longitudinal analysis revealed that there is no linear correlation between the the 10th grade assessment and the Matura examinations of Lithuanian language and literature. We assume that 10th grade achievement tests do not have a predictive value in relation to Matura examinations. The proportion of students whose achievement in Matura exams is better than in 10th approximately equals to the proportion of students whose achievement in Matura exams is worse than in 10th grade.

This research is funded by the European Social Fund according to the activity ‘Improvement of researchers’ qualification by implementing world-class R&D projects’ of Measure No. 09.3.3-LMT-K-712. The project No. DOTSUT-39 (09.3.3-LMT-K-712-01-0018) / LSS-250000-57.

[1] Eurydice (2009) National Testing of Pupils in Europe: Objectives, Organisation and Use of Results. Luxembourg: EACEA.
[2] Nacionalinis egzaminų centras (2012) 2011 metų pagrindinio ugdymo pasiekimų patikrinimo rezultatų analizė. Lietuvių kalba (gimtoji). V.: NEC.
[3] Nacionalinis egzaminų centras (2018) 2018 metų nacionalinio mokinių pasiekimų patikrinimo ataskaita. V.: NEC.
[4] Nacionalinis egzaminų centras (2020) 2020 metų lietuvių kalbos ir literatūros valstybinio brandos egzamino rezultatų statistinė analizė. V.: NEC.