Abstract:

In the intricate tapestry of the cosmos, where celestial threads weave stories of destiny, an enigmatic deity stands at the intersection of chance and fate — Tyche, the goddess of fortune. In science and probability, coincidence plays a distinctive role in Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Markov Models (MMs). This paper introduces the Tyche algorithm named after the goddess of fortune. The Tyche algorithm is a Markov model designed to generate learning paths in Learning Management Systems (LMSs). A learning path is a type of individualization that personalises the order of learning elements within an LMS course. Learning elements are fundamental components within an LMS course, depicting the learning content in diverse ways. In our case, the learning path tailoring is based on the learner’s learning style according to Felder-Silverman Learning Style Model (FSLSM) – an indicator for the ideal pathway and learning element for the learner’s optimum learning.

The Tyche algorithm offers the advantage to provide students the most suitable learning path. Tyche is a MM structure with various matrices containing transition probabilities depending on the learning style. Nine categories of learning elements defined in a previous survey form the basis of the node structure of the MM. For a generic approach, a survey was designed to obtain the transition probabilities depending on the individual learning style. The survey with more than 100 German students participated is processed with the tool LimeSurvey. Students are asked about their learning style using the Index of Learning Styles (ILS) questionnaire according to Felder-Silverman and about the percentage probabilities of learning elements to get their individual sequence as learning path. The percentages are queried in two different ways. Firstly, the students were asked to provide a sequence of learning elements within each position of the sequence filled with probabilities for all learning elements. Secondly, a learning element is given and the students are asked to indicate which learning element they would work on next. The first way of asking for the probabilities is used to find the start node in the MM, whereas the second approach forms the probability matrices between the nodes within the MM.

As result of the survey, the Tyche algorithm presents generic transition probabilities. It improves the learning process of individuals only by asking for their learning style: it generates individual learning paths through the learning elements within an LMS based on the MM explained above by solely getting the answers of the ILS questionnaire as input. In the future, other questionnaires such as BFI-10 for personality traits or LIST-K for learning strategies may offer a more comprehensive input. However, the next step is to evaluate Tyche with about 25 students in a software engineering lecture. This is planned for the year 2024.

Keywords:

Markov model, learning style, learning elements, learning management system, higher education area.