HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE REGION: FORECASTS AND DEVELOPMENTAL SCENARIOS OF INSTITUTIONAL INTERACTIONS

Introduction:
The article examines the problems of Russian higher education system in the process of its reform. The author describes the main trends in the institutional interaction development of higher education with stakeholders in one of the largest Russian regions - the Urals Federal District. A short-term and a long-term forecast is based on a wide range of studies, author states the problem of the necessity of the active involvement of regional authorities in the management of higher education. She states the need for the regional strategy of the institutional conditions development, that will allow the broad participation of universities in solving regional problems.

Methods:
The study is based on the set of methods. At the first stage, documents and data sources were studied: regulatory documents, governmental statistics, the results of sociological and marketing research studies, and the content of sites of more than 60 universities in the region.

At the second stage, a mass survey of teachers (N = 810) and students (N = 1860) was conducted in the Urals Federal District. The general population of study included 51 universities of the district. The sample design was based on the statistical data about educational communities of the region.

The third stage was based on the experts' opinions study – it revealed the problems of intra- and inter-institutional interaction in higher education, resources and risks of its development in the region. 80 experts participated in the study.

At the fourth stage, experts assessed the perspectives of the higher education development in the region. The main methods used at this stage - expert interviews and group work.

The results of the research represent a complex forecast of changes in interactions in higher education of the Urals Federal District. This forecast describes interactions between schools of the region, the system of additional professional education, employers' institutes, academic science, culture, and regional authorities. Particular attention is paid to the prospects for the development of interaction between domestic and foreign universities, social communities in higher education: students, teachers, representatives of educational management.
Conclusions: Scenarios of the institutional interactions in Ural region higher education in the Urals were based on the analysis of expert assessments. The complex forecast can be considered in the strategy and tactics of managing its reform.

Acknowledgments:
The article was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 16-18-10046 "Forming a Nonlinear Model of Russian Higher Education in the Region in Conditions of Economic and Social Uncertainty."