Abstract:

There is a necessity in effective mechanisms development on labor resources regulation in a labor market for the mid-term and long-term perspectives aimed at economy’s sustainable growth.

Projection system of recruitment needs could be one of such mechanisms based upon projection technique developed by Petrozavodsk State University. This technique has been developing for the last 10 years and includes combination of macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches. On one side, technique is based upon such data inputs as mathematic models (macroeconomic indicators) including Gross Regional Product, investments included in long-term programs on regions development. Based upon these indicators economy’ recruitment needs are defined. From the other side data inputs is presented with microeconomic indicators (employers, experts, youth surveys) for further model’s coefficients adjustments, indicators specification in case of limited statistics.

This projection technique is presented with a complex of nonlinear dynamical models in the form of finite difference equations including production functions. Models are taking into account more than 100 parameters and different factors which allow to describe complex system development “economy – labor market – vocational education”.

Foreign practice includes a huge number of projection techniques for a labor market – Bureau of Labor Statistics under the Department of Labor in the USA, MONASH model in Australia, MDM model of the UK, INFORGE and Ifo models in Germany. Proposed projection technique as well as foreign models have much in common. All these models are aimed at recruitment needs projection on national and regional levels and are implementing econometrics methods. They are based on the assumption of “demanded labor resources”, they use macroeconomic projection results on production of goods and services in different types of economic activity as data inputs. Its outstanding features are projection periods, forecasts actualization, mechanisms of data collecting and results implementation.

Suggested system allows to project recruitment needs in qualified staff, thus economy’s demand satisfaction in qualified staff will contribute to effective labor service in economy. Also the technique allows to analyze labor market satisfaction with vocational education graduates in qualitative and quantitative perspectives.

Peculiar trait of projection system is an optimal solution on enrollment figures development for educational institutions for all levels of vocational education. Optimal enrollment figures are demanded figures of school leavers who shall be enrolled at bachelor or specialist degree for economy’s demand satisfaction in the future. Thus an issue of educational flows adjustment with an optimal figures on graduates training for a given year is solved. Possible limitations of graduate resources are taken into account.

Scientific-based projection indicators application will result in efficiency upgrade of labor resources development and implementation. Such projections are necessary for authorities to take decisions on vocational training on perspective degrees; for citizens to decide on perspective occupations as well as educational trajectories and personal career development with a positive employability guarantee.

Keywords:

Projection system, recruitment needs, effective mechanisms, labor market, vocational education.