Abstract:

Grade Point Average (GPA) is widely used as a measure of academic success in undergraduate and graduate programs. Many universities, including the Faculty of Kinesiology at the University of Zagreb, use GPA as a key admission criterion for PhD programs. In addition to GPA, the selection process evaluates prior scientific activities, academic involvement, language proficiency (especially English and other global languages), and achievements in sports. The latter is considered relevant, as elite athletes often possess strong discipline, time management, and perseverance—qualities valuable in a PhD program. Despite GPA’s widespread use in admissions, its role in predicting PhD success has been increasingly questioned. A high GPA does not always guarantee outstanding research performance or timely completion of doctoral studies. This study investigates the correlation between GPA at admission and the time required to complete a PhD program. The analysis included 62 PhD students, mostly part-time, who defended their dissertations over the past decade. The primary objective was to determine whether students with higher admission GPAs completed their PhD programs faster. We also examined whether changes in program structure impacted this relationship.

The average completion time for part-time PhD students was 89.64 ± 37.87 months, with delays partly influenced by COVID-related extensions. The mean admission GPA was 4.41 ± 0.41 (on a 5-point scale). However, there was no significant correlation between admission GPA and PhD completion time (r = -0.037). A more detailed analysis of students who enrolled in the revised PhD program, introduced in 2015, showed a slightly stronger correlation (r = 0.31, N = 19). Though not statistically significant due to the small sample size, this suggests that program structure and other factors may influence PhD completion rates.

These findings indicate that while GPA remains a useful indicator of academic performance, it is not necessarily a predictor of PhD success. Doctoral programs demand persistence, problem-solving, independent research skills, and adaptability—qualities that may not always be reflected in GPA scores. Additionally, PhD completion time is influenced by various factors such as employment status (since many PhD students work), research complexity, institutional support, and personal circumstances. The variation observed in students enrolled post-2015 suggests that structural changes in the program may play a role in modifying this relationship. While GPA remains an important component of PhD admissions, its significance in the selection process may need reconsideration. This study suggests that admissions criteria should focus not only on GPA but also on candidates’ research potential, scientific output, and perseverance. Future research should further investigate this issue by including larger sample sizes and additional performance indicators.

Keywords:

GPA, PhD admission, doctoral completion, academic performance, selection criteria.