SIMULATION: A TOOL FOR DECISION MAKING IN PUBLIC POLICIES FIELD

Nowadays decision making process in the public policy sector is quite complex. Evaluation of public policies is recognized as important approach towards a more efficient public policy management. Although there has been many literature and research about these methods to solve the challenge, simulation has arise as one of the most promising techniques. It is presented as a helpful tool for this process; it brings the opportunity to experiment a better interpretation of the reality. Multiple scenes could be simulated while avoiding risky real situations, all these facts are the reason for being an optimum system for decision making.

This paper will present a model which will be helpful for the ex ante and the ex post evaluation of public policies. This sample uses multimethod simulation to solve the problem, Agent Based Modelling (ABM), System Dynamics (SD), and DES (Discrete Event Simulation). It is composed of six models, the first model’s purpose is to know how really the policies work, the second was built in order to evaluate the effectiveness of two competitor policies and analyze the parameters which could be determinant for the potential companies when they ask or not for a subsidy. The other four models are used to evaluate the impact of those policies in the region using key performance indicators.

To conclude, it could be said that this paper proposes a process to evaluate public policies following the next steps: Data collection (about the chosen policies), simulation models’ construction to analyze the effectiveness of those policies and their impact in the society. And finally, verification, models` results are verified comparing those numbers with the reality of past years in order to predict a future scene regarding those policies.