Abstract:

Some voices point to the disruption and transformation of the higher education (HE) sector due to the combination of major changes, being the non-stoppable ongoing digitalization process one of the most significant.

As a proven example of these changes, and after a decade since MOOCs’ popularization, Class Central reported that they reached 220M learners in 2021, with 950 universities participating, 19.4k courses, 1.670 micro credentials and 70 MOOC-based degrees. As an example of big promises of major transformation, artificial intelligence (AI)-based personalized education is expected to be a revolution on how students will learn in HE in the future, enhancing the quality of education by providing personalization at scale, whenever the problem of scalability is solved.

The COVID-19 forced digitalization has undoubtedly contributed to push this transformation, being an extreme trigger of the acceleration of digitalization in HE, with a 67% of universities being able to go online during the emergency phase, a percentage that rose to 89% during 2021.

Despite the fact that the higher education sector has shown an initial strong capacity for adaptation, and the fact that the perceived importance of digitalizing has increased, the reality is that it is not clear whether the changes produced by this forced digitalization will be permanent and drive future transformations, or whether the universities will return to pre-pandemic face-to-face learning schemes.

But what can no longer be turned back is the tremendous change in the competitive landscape. Previous differentiation between some of the strategic groups such as between face-to-face and born-digital universities is diluted. Additionally, new entrants to the sector, the EdTech competitors (e.g., Coursera) bring new pressure on incumbents with innovative digital business models.

The future of higher education depends, in part, on the learning model choice after COVID-19: a return to the previous learning mode, an incremental digitalization or a radical digital transformation.

Returning to the previous learning model seems to wish to hide from the new context. In contrast, an incremental digitalization to reinforce the existing value proposition (digitalization strategy) seems a safest strategy. HEIs could continue deploying digital technologies that result in some economic-driven outcomes, such as process automation, efficiencies and productivity improvements, cost reductions, error elimination, and improvements in the customer experience.

The most challenging option seems to be pursuing a radical digital transformation, to redefine the value proposition (digital transformation) by radically “creating new value” for the different stakeholders. Higher education institutions (HEIs) could deploy digital technologies that result in new capability-driven outcomes that redefine the value proposition, such as business model innovation (BMI), new revenue streams, radical changes in the offering, new leadership organization and culture, new sources of competitive advantage, among others.

Our paper has the purpose to explore these three alternative strategies, contributing to the debate of the future of higher education.

Keywords:

Post-COVID-19 scenarios, digitalization, digital transformation, HEI, value proposition, business model.