Abstract:

In terms of fierce competition among universities for students, forecasting of higher education institutions functioning quality is one of the current trends, because it allows learning in advance the rating of the university and to assess its position among the other universities and take early action to improve the quality of education and to attract students to the university. The development of such forecasts will help solve several problems of educational management, in particular, improving the image of the university, increase the flow of students and increase the demand for graduates in the labor market.

One of the biggest factors assessing the quality of the educational activities of the university is the result of "Monitoring of the educational institutions of higher education effectiveness ", which is held by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation since 2012. During this monitoring universities and affiliates are evaluated at key performance indicators. The information necessary to calculate these indicators high schools represent during the filling of two statistical forms of N HPE-1 "Information on educational institutions implementing programs of higher education" and N HPE-2 "Information on logistical and information base, financial and economic activities of the educational institution implementing programs of higher education".

The monitoring results (values of performance indicators for each institution) are published on open access on the Internet. A database for storage and further processing of the available information has been developed and created, in which the values of all performance indicators for universities and branches 2012 and 2013 were recorded.

To obtain correct forecasts in advance, the actual data must be analyzed. The existing values for universities effectiveness over the period were analyzed to variability for this purpose. Next, some of the characteristics parameters (average, minimum and maximum values, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, etc.) were calculated in the following sections - for years, according to each institution, groups of universities (2014 universities and branches involved in monitoring, were divided according to the territorial criterion into four groups, depending on the financial and economic situation of the region), the regions and federal districts. Typology and high schools clustering are also carried out according to relevant indicators. Based on the results obtained parameters are divided into two types - robust and divergent.

To verify the correctness and completeness of the initial data, a comparative analysis of the officially published by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation thresholds of performance indicators with the calculated values of these criteria was carries out.
The results of the analysis allow evaluating the current activities of the university in the field of educational management. They will also form the basis for the construction of medium-term and long-term forecast of university performance indicators.

Keywords:

Educational management, long-term projection, performance indexes, higher education, comparative analysis.