Abstract:

The institutional research is becoming increasingly crucial in terms of higher educational institutions, subjects for education services, acting like competitions. Such research contributes to strategic planning and data support for decision-making, development trends choosing, institutional design, strategic management, international cooperation management. Best foreign practice in institutional research (Pratt Institute, New York, U.S.A) proves the necessity of scientifically-based decision-making for strategic planning. Dynamics projection of higher educational institutions development is the basis for internal and external ranking, development trends analysis of the leading educational institutions in Russia and abroad, recommendations elaboration as well as national institutions compliance with international rankings. Quality projection of higher educational institutions functioning is one of the most topical trends in international economic science, since it helps to rank institutions’ beforehand, and correspondingly, assess education quality as well as graduates’ successful employability.

Higher educational institutions as any actively functioning system is influenced by external environment (external regulatory agencies, enrollees and their parents, employers). Nowadays one of the determinants for higher educational institutions external influence is the assessment organized by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia on “efficiency monitoring of higher educational organizations” dealing with 5 integral indexes: educational activity, research activity, international activity, financial-economic activity, infrastructure and two additional ones.

For scientifically-based decision-making in the field of higher educational institution’ strategic management, it is highly necessary to elaborate and create an expert-analytical system dealing with long-term projection of institutional effectiveness and external environments fluctuations. The article deals with both theoretical and practical tool-kit for inter-related mathematic models resulting in long-terms dynamics projection of relevant indexes, calculations, and qualitative projection of 5 basic indexes for all-Russian higher educational institutions. The methodology for the above-mentioned goals is based upon 2 approaches combination – systemic and informational. In terms of systemic approach both external and internal factors influencing negatively indicator values are exposed; a number of administrative decisions are elaborated for this problem elimination. Informational approach is dealing with both statistic data collection and procession for projection as well as in tool-kit development and creation.

Such system implementation will contribute to higher educational institutions self-assessment including both its activity and place evaluation in the ranking, the development trajectory correction, scientifically-based administrative decisions performing on advancing any institution-competitor.

Keywords:

Strategic management, long-terms projection, mathematical models, performance indicators, higher education, statistics.