Abstract:

This exploratory study aims to identify patterns associated with higher education dropout in Paraguay by analyzing the results of "Alcanza", a one-year support program implemented in 2024. The primary diagnostic instrument used was the Alcanza Stoplight, a multidimensional metric adapted from the Poverty Stoplight methodology . Unlike traditional socioeconomic surveys, this tool utilizes a visual traffic-light system (Red=Extreme Deprivation, Yellow=Deprivation, Green=No Deprivation) to measure well-being across 6 dimensions, enabling students to self-diagnose their living conditions and activate critical agency .

The methodology consisted of a cross-sectional analysis of the program's cohort of 302 students, comparing 285 currently enrolled students against 17 who dropped out . To measure resilience beyond income, a "Protective Index" was constructed . This composite indicator aggregates the density of "Green" results in key psychosocial variables—specifically emotional well-being, self-confidence, and support networks—providing a quantifiable score of a student's non-cognitive retention factors . Additionally, the study integrated territorial and educational context variables from the Ministry of Education and Sciences (MEC), the General Directorate of Statistics, Surveys, and Censuses (DGEEC), and the Ministry of Labor, Employment, and Social Security (MTESS) to control for institutional quality and district-level vulnerability .

Data analysis included cleaning, standardization, and cross-tabulation of Stoplight indicators with retention status . The results reveal consistent patterns: the Protective Index is positively associated with active class participation and teacher interaction . Specifically, the non-enrolled group (dropouts) exhibits fragile profiles in emotional well-being and self-confidence . Conversely, low income and economic instability significantly increase the proportion of "Red" indicators, acting as barriers to retention . We conclude that dropout in this sample is driven by a complex interaction between economic barriers and psychosocial dimensions . Integrating Alcanza Stoplight self-assessments with open data provides actionable signals to design targeted tutoring, psycho-emotional support, and economic alleviation measures .

Keywords:

University dropout; Paraguay; Alcanza Stoplight; Student retention; Protective Index; Psychosocial factors; Open data.