Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic affected education worldwide. It is necessary to analyze its consequences and redefine strategies to achieve development goals in each country. This study focuses on examining changes in school enrollment in the state of Jalisco, Mexico, as a result of the pandemic. We analyzed official enrollment data from the Ministry of Education of Mexico. Variations at each educational level are addressed, considering modalities, gender and type of financing (public or private). The school enrollment in Jalisco is compared with that of other entities and the country as a whole. Additionally, this study analyzes changes in the 125 municipalities that constitute the state.

A reduction in school enrollment in Jalisco was observed, declining from 2,311,936 students in the 2018-2019 cycle to 2,260,677 in the 2022-2023 academic year. This signifies a decrease of 51,259 students, representing a 2.2% decrease. The most significant reduction is observed in basic education, with a decrease of 3.5%, whereas higher education enrollment experienced an increase of 6.7%. The decrease is more pronounced in private schools (6.3%) than in public schools (1.3%), impacting male enrollment (3.2%) more significantly than female enrollment (1.2%).

The nationwide enrollment reduction due to the pandemic was 2.2%. Veracruz had the most significant decrease at 7.8%, while Nuevo León experienced the largest increase at 4.4%. Within Jalisco’s municipalities, variations ranged from a 14.8% reduction to a 74.4% increase.

Using linear regression based on a decade of data, the expected enrollment for 2022-2023 cycle was calculated as the hypothetical enrollment that would have been achieved without the pandemic. School dropout was defined as the difference between actual (2,260,677) and expected (2,424,633) enrollment, resulting in a dropout of 163,986 students in Jalisco, equivalent to 7.2%.

Keywords:

Education indicators, enrollment, dropout, pandemic.