Abstract:

We presented a descriptive study with linear and correlational regression and statistical analysis to determine expected trends in education enrollment in Mexico with pre and post-COVID-19 pandemic data in the last decade. The results turn on red flags; it is estimated that more than 2 million students dropped out of their studies in Mexico between 2018-2019 and 2021-2022. The total enrollment of the National Educational System, in 2021-2022, was similar to the 2012-2013 cycle, that is, a lag of up to 9 years. If the enrollment trend continued, we should have 39.4 million students instead of the 35.8 million reported. At all levels, except Higher Education, enrollment was reduced. The reduction in enrollment was greater in men (6.8%) than in women (4.0%). The greatest reduction, in number of students, was in Higher Secondary Education, with 1.09 million fewer students than expected. The countries with the lowest performance in PISA suspended more face-to-face classes during the pandemic; in OECD countries, Mexico was the one that suspended the most face-to-face classes during the pandemic. Recovering the educational gap must be a priority in Mexico.

Keywords:

Education data, enrolment, dropout, pandemic.