Abstract:

Understanding what will drive change in learning and education will give educators and decision makers the knowledge and agency to influence and shape the future of learning. This paper shares insights from The Futures of Learning research project, an international three-phase study that used established anticipatory thinking methods to explore how learners, parents, and educators anticipate the future of learning and the characteristics of their preferred futures. Three phases of data collection each drew on an international sample of learners (n=at least 74) and parents and educators (n=450) from every (populated) continent.

In phase 1, horizon scanning, we addressed the question ‘What is happening that is changing learning?’ and surveyed and workshopped with participants to identify potential signs of changes – called disruptors – of learning. Fifteen disruptors were identified. The second phase involved rating each disruptor on the likelihood of it happening in the future and how impactful it would be on learning and learners in their contexts. This allowed us to analyse which of those disruptors educational decision makers would need to monitor, plan for, or act on now. Finally, in phase 3, we addressed the question ‘What are our preferred and plausible futures?’ where participants imagined and described their preferred and undesirable future scenarios of learning.

Disruptors which were identified as most highly likely and with most potential impact on learning and learners (i.e. those we should act on now) focussed on the pedagogical value of new approaches, transformative technologies, durable skills, and the evolving role of teachers using AI. For example: globalisation of education and the need to offer opportunities to a more diverse and connected community; methods of assessment shifting to evaluating skills and competencies including adaptability and resilience; the change in role of teachers from content providers to facilitators and/or mentors; and the move to more innovative teaching which is active and dynamic.

Disruptors which were rated as less likely, but high impact (i.e. those we should plan for) included: the collapse of the formal education system due to the availability of AI; learning reverting to traditional, analogue methods; the decline or end of physical schools resulting in learning being fully online; and human teachers becoming obsolete with AI taking over instructional roles.

The outcomes provide information to help educational decision makers globally, to positively shape the future of education within their own contexts. By identifying both preferred and undesirable futures of learning, the study helps support decision making to move education in a positive direction. Insights from this work will equip educational designers with evidence to inform the design of curricula areas and pedagogical approaches that prepare learners with the adaptability and resilience needed to thrive in the world.

Keywords:

Education futures, education, learning, disruption.