Abstract:

University qualifications are a defining feature of modern life. Possession of at least a bachelor’s degree is almost essential for employment in a good job in many countries (Carnevale, Jayasundera, & Cheah, 2012; Marginson, 2016). Accredited degrees are an enabler of the globalised market in talent and are recognised as offering many opportunities for those who wish to travel and work internationally (Adelman, 2009; Bologna Declaration, 1999; UNESCO, 2015). The naïve view of qualifications as a means of personal advancement and success is however increasingly disconnected from reality as the growth in participation rates drives universities through élite, mass provision and into universal scale (Trow, 1973; 2010). High participation rates see qualifications increasingly used as a mechanism enacting and sustaining social stratification, where other factors such as the ‘positional’ nature of educational qualifications (Brown, 2003; Harrod, 1958; Hirsch, 1976) start to play a significant role, rather than an enabler of broad improvements in societies (Brown, 2011, Marginson, 2016; Marshall, 2018). In addition, technological change is affecting both the form education can take through the development of MOOCs and microcredentials, and the shifting needs of society for skills as automation and other technologies change the workplace (Ford, 2015; Frey & Osborne, 2013). A number of future scenarios are presented in this paper that illustrate how the formalised model of the degree may in future evolve, responding to changes driven by social, economic, political, financial and technological factors.

Keywords:

Qualifications, positional qualifications, MOOC, microcredential, inequality.