Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global disruptor, significantly impacting various sectors, including education. As Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in Portugal and around the world turned to remote learning and other alternative modes of instruction, a consequential shift may have occurred in the dynamics of student engagement, retention, and dropout [1].

Traditional frameworks highlight three primary factors influencing students’ decisions to leave higher education prematurely: the national education system, attributes of the higher education institutions, and students characteristics, including both pre-study and study-related aspects [2]. Prior research indicates that financial aid, influences dropout behaviors, with those receiving aid showing the lowest probability of dropping out [3]. Additionally, academic performance plays a pivotal role, as poorly performing students tend to leave because continuing education doesn't seem beneficial, rather than the risk of academic failure [4]. While these determinants remain relevant, the pandemic has introduced additional complexities. This shift has made it imperative to understand if and how the pandemic may have influenced dropout rates in HEIs ([5]; [6]).

This paper looks at dropout trends over the last decade and potential changes in the COVID-19 era. It analyses how those trends differ across sectors, institutions and fields of study. Findings reveal that the average dropout rate has generally increased across all sectors and subsystems, being higher in polytechnics than in universities, and in private institutions compared to public ones. During the pandemic, however, this increase was slightly more pronounced. Integrated master programmes show the lowest dropout rates, whereas Professional Higher Technical Courses (CTeSP) show the highest. Interestingly, the dropout rates for Bachelor's degrees have risen in recent years, possibly influenced by the pandemic. On the other hand, dropout rates for Master programmes have been decreasing. In contrast, transfer rates are generally higher in public institutions and lower for 2nd cycle Master's compared to Bachelor's degrees. Retention rates remained consistently high across all types of HEIs, usually exceeding 80%, and were not significantly affected by the pandemic.

By melding traditional frameworks with the challenges of the pandemic, we offer a novel perspective on the shifting educational terrain. Our insights aim to assist institutions in reducing dropout rates and bolstering student support in these challenging times. Future research will further explore student experiences, especially those at higher risk of dropout, to refine educational strategies and interventions.

References:
[1] OECD(2021),he State of School education:1Year into the COVID Pandemic
[2] Behr et al(2020).Dropping out of university: literature review. Rev Educ,8(2),614-652
[3] Stratton, et al (2008).A multinomial logit model of college stopout and dropout behavior. Econ Educ Rev,27(3),319-331
[4] Stinebrickner & Stinebrickner(2014).Academic Perfor and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expect Data to Estimate Learning Model. Jrn Labor Econ,32(3),601–644
[5] Tang(2023). Impacts of COVID-19 on primary, secondary and tertiary education comprehensive rev and recommendations educational practices. Educ Res Policy Prac,22(1),23-61
[6] Tilak & Kumar(2022).Policy Changes in Global Higher Educ: What Lessons Do We Learn from the COVID-19 Pandemic? Higher Educ Policy,35(3),610-628

Keywords:

Higher education, Human Capital, Dropout rates, COVID-19.