Abstract:

Over the last decades, lifelong learning has been encouraged in Portugal, namely by widening the access to higher education (HE) of non-traditional students. For example, the Maiores de 23 (M23) admission regime, which does not require completion of secondary school and is exclusive for students with 23 or more years old, gives a second opportunity to adult individuals with a deprived background, who interrupted their normal academic progression often due to financial constraints, to enroll in HE and trigger a transformative process that promotes social justice by reducing inequalities. Nevertheless, while the overall dropout rate in HE in Portugal rounds 29%, the dropout rate among M23 students is 50% (Engrácia & Baptista, 2018). This difference may be explained by the lack of educational policies adjusted to the needs and characteristics of these students.

In this study, we use detailed longitudinal information on more than 5000 students who enrolled in an undergraduate degree at a Portuguese HE institution to distinguish mature students from younger ones on how personal and familiar background, socioeconomic context and classroom environment affect their academic performance. To extend previous literature, which is essentially focused on dropout risk, we simultaneously analyse the probabilities of dropout and of graduation, as both outcomes are interdependent but not contrary, by employing an event history analysis (EHA, also known as duration analysis) with competing risks. By understanding the specifics towards each type of student, it will be possible to develop distinct and more effective policy actions, directed not only to reduce dropout rates but also to increase graduation prospects.

The risk of dropping out in an early stage of the course is observed to be higher for mature students. Moreover, their graduation prospects are higher the lower the educational level of their parents (suggesting that adult education has a social mobility effect), and their dropout risk seems to increase with age. For younger students, a high distance between the school and their residence appears to be key to explain dropout. Additionally, even though prior qualifications are found to contribute to the academic success of both types of students, their importance is shown to be smaller for mature students.

Financial support, obtained either by getting employed or through a scholarship, seems to contribute to reduce dropout risk for both types of students (with scholarships more important for younger students and employment more important to adults). Nevertheless, obtaining financial support through employment has the collateral effect of reducing the probability of graduation, for both types of students. Also with countervailing effects, the implementation of some flexibility in the organization of the courses, for example by offering post-labour classes or by using e-learning methodologies, is proved to be important to increase the probability of graduation among mature students but it is also related with higher odds of dropout for both types of students.

Finally, classroom environment is also proved to be relevant, with mature students benefiting more from the integration in smaller classes and with higher proportions of student workers and of successful students, and younger students benefiting more from being surrounded by a higher proportion of mature students in their classes (suggesting a positive externality effect of adult education).

Keywords:

Adult education, higher education, event history analysis, competing risks, dropout, education policy, mature students.