Abstract:

Aims of the study:
In an age of rapid technological advancement and global uncertainty, forecasting the future of assessment poses significant challenges. Instead of attempting to forecast with certainty, this research employed Futures Thinking as a methodological approach to anticipate plausible future directions. Drawing on collaborative efforts from diverse stakeholders within the University of Cambridge and external groups, this study conducts a forward-looking exploration of the future of assessment spanning to 2050.

Methods:
Utilising established Futures Thinking methodologies such as Horizon Scanning, Futures Triangle, Causal Layered Analysis, Scenario Imagining, and Visioning Preferred Futures, this research identifies pivotal drivers of change and envisages potential pathways for the evolution of assessment. Horizon scanning systematically monitors information sources to identify emerging issues and changes, while trends and megatrends offer insights into potential future trajectories. Complementary methods such as the Futures Triangle and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) provide deeper insights by unpacking present assumptions and envisioning preferred futures. Scenario Imagining explores plausible future trajectories grounded in existing trends and signals, facilitating preparation for various outcomes. Visioning focuses on preferred futures, guiding design-based research or backcasting to map steps toward those futures. A critical futures approach challenges assumptions and fosters proactive action, essential in navigating complexities like the climate emergency and advancements in AI.

Findings:
We identified four key drivers that are likely to shape the future of assessment between the present and 2050:
(1) AI tutors and personalised learning,
(2) augmented, virtual and hybrid technologies,
(3) human flourishing and wellbeing, and
(4) climate change.
The rise of AI tutors and personalised learning signals a transformative era in education, challenging conventional assessment paradigms and demanding considerations of reliability, fairness, and diversity. Technological advancements in augmented, virtual, and hybrid technologies reshape assessment methods, potentially exacerbating the digital divide while offering immersive, interactive assessment experiences. Moreover, the imperative for student wellbeing and the consequences of climate change are reshaping assessment practices towards more flexible, compassionate approaches. Looking ahead to 2050, envisioned phases of integration, expansion, adoption, and pilot projects outline a trajectory towards digitalisation and innovation in assessment practices.

Conclusions:
Our research underscores the uneven nature of technological adoption and the potential impacts of climate change on educational systems globally. It also highlights the critical role of existing assessment organisations in shaping discourse and ensuring the integrity and validity of digital assessments. Finally, this research offers insights into navigating the complexities of future assessment landscapes, emphasising adaptability, equity, and sustainability in educational practices.

Keywords:

Assessment, digital, future.