Abstract:

Entrepreneurial intentions (EI) have been extensively studied in entrepreneurship research during the past 20 years. In general, the previous research has been largely based on the Theory of Planned Beviour (TPB) by Ajzen (1991) and addressed entrepreneurial intention in different contexts. TPB suggests that intention is influenced by attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavior control and the intention is an antecedent of behavior (action) (Ajzen, 1991). However, the biggest research gap has been in longitudinal settings (Liñán & Fayolle, 2015) and the link between intentions and actual start-up remains largely unexplored (Schlaegel & Koenig, 2014). Higher education, according to some studies, reduces the likelihood of entrepreneurship (Joensuu et al., 2013). Other studies (Zhang et al., 2014) suggest the opposite. However, there are just few studies examining the individual level development of entrepreneurial intentions in a longitudinal setting. This study contributes to entrepreneurial intention research by examining the TPB model in a longitudinal follow-up of the same person from study time until 6-9 years after graduation and the link between entrepreneurial intention and actual behavior. The objectives of the paper are as follows:
1) to examine the development of entrepreneurial intentions in around ten year time period from study time until years after graduation (three waves), and
2) to examine the link between study time entrepreneurial intentions and actual start-up behavior after graduation in a longitudinal setting.

The data for this research comes from Finland. Questionnaire was largery based on the work of Kolvereid (1996). The first data collection was done through years 2008 to 2012 for all the students studying in Seinäjoki University of Applied Sciences during those years. The second data collection (follow-up data after graduation) was done in year 2013 (281 responses). A third data gathering was done for these same graduates in 2018. At that time, 6 - 9 years had passed since graduation. From these 281 graduates, 89 responses were received. The data is analyzed with path analysis and logistic regression analysis.

Results show that entrepreneurial intentions rise after graduation. For women, intentions first rise few years after study time and then stay in around the same level. For men, intentions first rise a little, but the major change becomes later in the work life. Path analysis shows that with men, the changes in the antecedents of EI explain 49 percent of the variance of the change in EI. However, only the change in perceived behavioral control has statistical value. For women, the model explains 31 percent of the variance in the change in EI and the change in attitudes and the change in perceived behavioral control have statistical value. There exists a link between intentions and behavior both after few years and after several years. Logistic regression analysis verifies, that entrepreneurial intentions measured almost ten years ago do explain significantly entrepreneurial behavior at the current situation in year 2018. In addition, gender and role models had value in the model. This shows the value of intention measures in predicting entrepreneurial behavior in a long term. The implication is that intention measurement, if utilized in planning studies, can make a great difference in long-term impact of entrepreneurship education.

Keywords:

Entrepreneurial intentions, higher education, entrepreneurship education, longitudinal study.