Abstract:

One of the challenges for the Russian economy is the quantitative and qualitative discrepancy between the supply and demand of labor resources in the labor market. The main component of the mechanism for regulating the labor resources of the regions is the forecasting of the long-term personnel needs of the economy. Formed projections of personnel requirements are the basis for determining the volume of personnel issues in the system of vocational education, as well as for justifying the opening of new directions and specialties of training for professional and additional vocational education.

Currently, at the level of individual regions of Russia various methods and approaches to forecasting the volumes and profiles of personnel training are used, differing in basic principles, tools, the level of detail of the forecast and the magnitude of the forecasting period. With all the diversity of forms and methods for predicting staffing needs, they can be structured according to two alternative approaches.
The first approach is macroeconomic, which is based on the assumption that the structure of human capital needed to produce a unit of production does not have significant regional differences, but is determined by the level of technology and labor organization in different sectors of the economy.

The second approach is sociological, which is based on carrying out statistically significant surveys of employers concerning the need for specialists with vocational education for individual enterprises in the region.

The world experience in forecasting personnel requirements is represented by models of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor, MONASH models of Australia, MDM of Great Britain, INFORGE and Ifo of Germany and others.

In order to improve the quality of forecasting the needs for personnel training by the subjects of Russia, a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of existing methods using a science-based approach is required.

To formalize the evaluation of the effectiveness of methods for forecasting staffing needs, a system of criteria and indicators was developed that were selected on the basis of the most complete reflection of the content of the methodology and the breadth of its applicability for forecasting training needs. The developed 12 criteria and the 34 indicators included in them are divided in the following groups: the science-intensive and systematic nature of the methodology, the verification and convergence of forecasts, the multivariance and use of scenarios, the depth of detailed forecasting and the planning horizon, the practical orientation, and the program implementation.

Taking into account the results of the analysis, a set of indicators was chosen to quantify the effectiveness of forecasting techniques and the possibility of compiling an integral rating of these techniques. For each selected indicator, the method for its quantitative evaluation is determined. The integral rating of the efficiency of forecasting methods is calculated by the additive convolution method for all selected indicators, taking into account the weights of their significance.

The proposed toolkit allows you to choose from the presented variety of methods the most effective for forecasting the personnel requirement in the regions of Russia.

Keywords:

Personnel requirement, personnel training, education system, forecasting, educational management.