Abstract:

The purpose of this contribution is to analyse the perception that students in science degrees have of the importance of quantifying uncertainties in a specific case in their daily lives, such as checking current weather forecasts. Previous studies related to the perception of atmospheric forecasts of different weather elements, such as air temperature, wind and precipitation, among others, have shown that temperature forecasts produce the highest confidence among Spanish university students. In this regard, students recognize the uncertainty associated with temperature forecasts, together with an increase in this uncertainty for longer prediction lead times. However, although students consider that temperature forecasts are not perfect and expect a degree of uncertainty between 1 and 2 ºC when they are presented in deterministic terms, they also acknowledge this information as very useful. With the aim of increasing our understanding of student’s perception of these weather forecasts, the current study analyses their preferences in relation to the communication of such forecasts. To do this, two hypothetical temperature scenarios, with different degree of complexity, were proposed, where the prediction of this weather element was communicated in both deterministic and probabilistic terms. In this sense, we asked students how they prefer to receive the corresponding temperature forecast: based on a single value (deterministic forecast) or through a communication in which some type of uncertainty statement is introduced (probability forecast). A total of 101 students from the universities of Alicante and Valencia participated anonymously in this study. The results showed that a large majority of participants preferred those temperature forecasts that indicate some uncertainty measure compared to those presenting the forecast as a single (deterministic) value. This fact was reflected considering the two temperature forecast scenarios, despite the difference in complexity between them. The information obtained is very valuable to us as teachers, as it allows us to know the tolerance of students when facing uncertainty as well as to detect positive aspects and drawbacks that students find in this regard, in addition to provide a broader vision of how better treat and introduce different types of weather forecasts communication in a classroom environment.

Keywords:

Atmosphere, Uncertainty, Temperature Forecasts, Communication, Perception and Preferences.