Abstract:

Leadership education increasingly uses scenario-based learning to prepare participants for AI-driven uncertainty. Yet a persistent challenge remains: future-oriented capabilities such as strategic imagination, assumption testing, and governance-ready decision-making are difficult to assess in ways that are transparent, teachable, and scalable across cohorts. Without clear assessment criteria, scenario work risks becoming inspirational “future talk” rather than an evidence-informed learning process with actionable feedback loops.

This paper presents the development and classroom use of an analytic assessment rubric for scenario-based leadership education designed to operationalise strategic imagination as an assessable learning outcome.

The rubric specifies performance-relevant dimensions of scenario competence, including:
(1) surfacing and challenging implicit assumptions,
(2) internal coherence and plausibility across drivers and constraints,
(3) generation of robust strategic options across multiple plausible futures,
(4) translation into governance-ready choices (decision rights, policies, checkpoints), and
(5) reflective judgement regarding trade-offs, accountability, and responsible use of generative AI.

Empirically, the study draws on assessed scenario assignments and reflective outputs from leadership education cohorts (200+ participants), combined with iterative rubric refinement informed by educator calibration sessions. The findings indicate that rubric-guided scenario work improves the quality of feedback and strengthens participants’ ability to move from descriptive narratives to testable strategic and governance propositions. Participants report that the rubric clarified expectations, supported peer review, and made uncertainty a productive learning condition rather than an obstacle. Educators report increased consistency in evaluation and greater instructional leverage for teaching critical thinking, strategic judgement, and responsible AI use.

The paper contributes a practical, transferable assessment framework for leadership education and offers design implications for integrating scenario-based learning into programmes where AI accelerates change and raises the stakes of strategic decision-making.

Keywords:

Assessment of student learning, Scenario-based learning, Strategic imagination, Leadership education, Critical thinking, Governance-ready strategy, Responsible AI.