Abstract:

A demographic study on the school trajectory of students of the Basic Education of the Brazilian Educational System based on educational indicators extracted from the Censo Escolar 2010. The objective is to analyze the school population of Elementary School in the five regions of Brazil and determine the transition probabilities that a student has for to go from one series to the next. It uses as a method the multi-state statistical model because it makes it possible to calculate the probabilities of transition between the education series, through the transition rates (promotion, repetition, evasion and migration for the education of young and adults) and rates of the distortion age-grade. The results show that less than half of the schooling population transits between the Basic Education series in an adequate way. It considers the debate related to the socioeconomic conditions and operational factors of the educational system to be important since these may explain the low probability of transition between the series of the Basic Education and the lower than expected school life expectancy.

Keywords:

Basic education, Educational indicators, School transition, School demography.