Abstract:

In recent years, Mexico has experienced an increase in higher education enrollment, which has led to the design of policies to improve coverage and access. However, this increase has not kept pace with the labor market's capacity to absorb it, potentially resulting in a disconnect between professional training and employment, particularly in terms of job placement.

In this context, this study analyzes the structural disconnection between the rapid expansion of higher education enrollment in Mexico and the limited capacity of the labor market to absorb highly educated workers between 2005 and 2022. Using a longitudinal approach across different government periods, the study examines the economic returns to higher education with a central focus on gender inequalities, revealing persistent differences in labor market insertion and remuneration between men and women.

The analysis is based on a database of 503,412 individuals aged 25 to 70 with higher education, including postgraduate studies. The sample consists of 53.59% men and 46.41% women, with an average of 16 years of schooling. Despite having similar educational profiles, significant labor market differences are observed. Men consistently report more working hours and higher earnings. Moreover, the average real income of professionals decreased from 81 pesos in 2005 to 52 pesos in 2022, reflecting a general devaluation of higher education credentials.

The match between educational attainment and job requirements, measured through the modal category, shows that most workers are adequately matched to their level of education, although this proportion has gradually declined. The study hypothesizes that educational mismatch constitutes a source of economic vulnerability with differentiated effects by gender, disproportionately affecting women.

To estimate gender wage penalties, an extended Mincer wage equation is used, controlling for schooling, work experience, marital status, and occupation. The coefficient associated with gender (woman = 1) is negative and statistically significant across all analyzed periods, indicating that women receive lower hourly wages than men with similar observable characteristics. The wage penalty reached its peak in 2007–2012 and, although it has decreased in recent years, it remains persistent.

In real terms, the hourly wage gap remained negative for women throughout the study period. These findings suggest a double vulnerability for female professionals: the general devaluation of higher education and a gender-based wage penalty associated with occupational segregation, promotion barriers, and structural discrimination.

The study concludes that the expansion of higher education in Mexico has not guaranteed equal labor market opportunities. Specific public policies are required to reduce the gender wage gap and ensure that women’s investment in human capital translates into equitable remuneration, with direct implications for the country’s economic development.

Keywords:

Higher education expansion, Gender wage inequality, Educational mismatch.