Abstract:

Public opinion is often influenced by various sources of information, whose authenticity remains uncertain. As a result, decision-making processes frequently oscillate between different perspectives. Experience-based decision-making plays a crucial role in shaping final outcomes across multiple domains. In particular, past experiences and results serve as key parameters, contributing to fluctuations in decision outcomes.

The high school entrance exam in Vietnam is one of the most stressful and competitive assessments, with significant social and educational implications. Students must select and register for their preferred high schools three months before the exam, facing the risk of failing to meet their desired goals if they make an ill-informed decision. Information dissemination among students and parents significantly impacts these choices and indirectly influences exam performance. Consequently, exam scores can serve as an indicator to analyze decision-making trends.

In this study, a nonlinear oscillator model is proposed to describe the influence of experience-based decision-making as an external force, potentially leading to chaotic behavior in final outcomes. An analysis of Hanoi’s high school entrance exam scores is presented as a case study, incorporating normal distribution methods to assess the accuracy and trends of exam performance over time.

Keywords:

Education, experience-based decision, normal distribution, educational policy.