Abstract:

This research aims to highlight which would be the most attractive occupations on the Romanian labor market in the next period and in the long run. A long-term consequence of the digitalization of the economy is the polarization of jobs. This polarization means an increase in the number of vacancies that require higher or lower education.
Most studies indicate a polarizing trend in Central and Eastern Europe.What is the dynamics of the Romanian labor market? To answer this question we will use a probabilistic approach based on discrete-time Markov chains. Basically, we will use the distribution of jobs on the three types of educational levels (low, medium, high) to simulate how they will be distributed in the long run. With the help of this methodology we will be able to identify which are the most probable long-term occupations in Romania. Although, the effects of the digital economy do not currently indicate a general polarization of the labor market, it is beginning to emerge in the long run. This aspect on the one hand is gratifying if we consider that it is time to invest in education and vocational systems, in order to avoid a disastrous structural unemployment. On the other hand, this indicates that the Romanian economy has a low level of digitalization.
The system of vocational education and training under the tutelage of the state works, but more in the direction of vocational training for jobs that require low level of education. Moreover, the maximum number of people who can participate is an average of 1,500 people per month in the last quarter of 2020. It is true that on the Romanian labor market there is also professional training offered by the private sector, but it is often for a fee. In addition, a vocational retraining program is needed for people with higher and secondary education whose occupations will disappear in the future. At the end of the paper, we will formulate some recommendations in the direction of highlighting the occupational segments not covered by the public vocational education and training system in Romania.

Keywords:

Job vacancies, Markov chain, job polarization, digital economy, future occupations.